NBA AI: free assists predictions for every game

The basics

Line

The published over / under number for his assists. Over = more, Under = fewer. Beside it, its low–high range today.

o / u

The prices published with the line on the Over (o) and the Under (u): −110 ≈ 52% implied, +120 ≈ 45%.

Prediction

The NBA AI model's number for his assists in this game. Brown = he or the referees were not confirmed yet.

Diff %

How far the Prediction is above (+) or below (−) the Line: Line 10, Prediction 12 = +20%.

Lean

The side of the Line the Prediction is on: Over or Under. Not a recommendation.

Over, last 5 / 10 / season

3 of 5 = he went over the line at prediction in 3 of his last 5 games.

Min prev / avg

His minutes: last game and season average.

Out (team / opp)

Players ruled out: 4 / 8 = 4 on his team, 8 on the opponent. Point at it for names.

Actual

His real stat once the game is final, with hit or miss against the closing line. Void = he did not play.

Lean record

How his earlier leans this season went: 4 of 5 = 4 hits in 5 graded games.

Prediction accuracy

How many of his earlier predictions this season landed within 10% of what he really did: 4 of 5.

Minutes

Minutes he played. Actual and Minutes appear once a game of the date is final.

Percent colours

Blue = above (the line, or his average), orange = below; for Diff % and the Over rates darker and bolder = further away (10 / 20 / 30 %). Green / red appear only on results. Colour is never advice.

Default

Player

Player, team vs (home) or @ (away) opponent, tip-off time and the game's state. The name opens his detail

Line

Published over / under number: Over = more, Under = fewer. o / u = prices; low–high = range today. After tip-off: closing line

Prediction

NBA AI model's prediction of his stat. Brown = he, his position's starter or referees not confirmed; tap or point for why. "–" = it gave 0

Diff %

How far the Prediction is above (+) or below (−) the line shown (the closing line once the game is scored): (Prediction − Line) ÷ Line. +50% = Line 10, Prediction 15

Lean

Over when the Prediction is above the line shown (the closing line once the game is scored), Under when below, Even when equal. It describes the model's number; not advice

Actual

His real stat; under it, the lean's hit or miss against the closing line (Push or Void when none). Shown once games are final

Lean record

How often the model's lean on him hit in his earlier games this season: 4 of 5 = 4 hits in 5 (pushes and voids not counted)

Prediction accuracy

How often his earlier predictions this season were within 10% of what he actually did: 4 of 5

Minutes

Minutes he played; DNP / Inactive = did not play, so void (point at it for why). Shown once games are final, as Actual

Over, last 5

How often he went over the line at prediction: 3 of 5 = he went over in 3 of his last 5 games (fewer than 5 early on)

Over, last 10

How often he went over the line at prediction: 6 of 10 = he went over in 6 of his last 10 games (fewer than 10 early on)

Over, season

In how many of his earlier games in the model's data window (about the last month) he went over the line at prediction

Season avg

His average of this stat per game this season, before this game

Min prev

Minutes he played in his previous game. "–" = not sent with this prediction

Min avg

His average minutes per game this season, before this game. "–" = not sent with this prediction

Out (team / opp)

Players ruled out of this game (injured or inactive): 4 / 8 = 4 on his team, 8 on the opponent. Point at or tap it for names

Rest

Days since his last game; b2b = back to back (he played the day before)

Form

Min L10

His average minutes over his last 10 games (fewer early in the season)

Min last 3

His average minutes over his last 3 games this season, before this game (fewer early on)

Min last 5

His average minutes over his last 5 games this season, before this game (fewer early on)

Min last 9

His average minutes over his last 9 games this season, before this game (fewer early on)

Max minutes

His most minutes in one game this season, before this game

Last 3 avg

Average of the stat over his last 3 games (fewer early in the season)

Last 5 avg

Average of the stat over his last 5 games (fewer early in the season)

Last 9 avg

Average of the stat over his last 9 games (fewer early in the season)

Previous game

The stat in the player's previous game this season

Last vs opponent

The stat in the player's last game against this opponent, any season; "–" = never faced them

Last 10 games

The stat in the player's last 10 games, newest first; "–" = no value for that game

Last 10 minutes

Minutes he played in each of the Last 10 games, newest first; "–" = not sent with this prediction

Diff vs avg

Prediction minus the season average, in stat units

|Diff|

How far the Prediction is from the line, over or under, in stat units

|Diff %|

Diff % without its sign: how far the Prediction is from the line, over or under

Avg − line

Season average minus the line; + = his average sits above it

L3 − line

Last 3 avg minus the line; + = his last 3 games averaged above it

Prev − line

His previous game's stat minus this game's line; + = above it

L3 − avg

Last 3 avg minus the season average; + = recent games above his average

Opponent

Opponent out

Opponent players ruled out for this game (injury, inactive, suspension)

Opp defence last 1

The stat the matched opposing player allowed to his own matchup in his previous game

Opp defence last 3

The stat the matched opposing player allowed to his own matchup, averaged over his last 3 games

Opp defence season

The stat the matched opposing player allowed to his own matchup, season average

Opp defence prev rank

Not a rank: the matched opposing player's fouls + steals + blocks in his previous game

Opp defence L3 rank

Not a rank: the matched opposing player's fouls + steals + blocks, each averaged over his last 3 games

Opp defence season rank

Not a rank: the matched opposing player's fouls + steals + blocks, each as a season average

Opposing player

Opponent paired with this player: same start slot, nearest minutes. A heuristic, not the real defender

Rest & travel

Home / away

Home when the player's team hosts the game, Away otherwise

Days since last game

Days since the player's previous game; 1 = back to back, 0 = no earlier game on record

Week minutes

Minutes the player played in the 7 days before this game

Opponent rest days

Days since the matched opposing player (see Opposing player) last played

Opponent week minutes

Minutes the matched opposing player played in the 7 days before this game

Distance (mi)

Miles between the two teams' home cities; 0 for the home team. Not the actual trip from the last game

Altitude (ft)

Altitude of the home arena in feet; the same for both teams

Lineup

Unconfirmed reason

Why the row is unconfirmed, e.g. his position's starter questionable or referees not posted; "–" = confirmed

Referees

Whether the referee crew was confirmed when the row was predicted; if not, Prediction shows brown

Start slot

Lineup slot: C, F or G = starter at that position; B = bench or not named in the lineup

Team out

Teammates ruled out for this game (injury, inactive, suspension)

Referees

Referee 1

First referee of the crew; "–" = crew not known yet

Referee 2

Second referee of the crew; "–" = crew not known yet

Referee history (36)

36 cells: R1/R2 = referee, L1–L6 = his 1st–6th latest game with this player; the stat, TO, PF. "unknown" = no such game

Referee LOW4

Sheet signal −4 to 4: per 3-game block with each referee, +1 if all 3 were under avg ÷ 1.1, else −1. "–" = refs unknown

Referee HIGH4

Sheet signal −4 to 4: per 3-game block with each referee, +1 if all 3 were over avg × 1.1, else −1. "–" = refs unknown

Market

Line at prediction

Published line when the model ran; Lean at prediction uses it. Result and Lean hit use the closing line. "–" = no line then

Over price at prediction

Price on the Over when the model ran. American format: −110 ≈ 52% implied chance, +120 ≈ 45%

Under price at prediction

Price on the Under when the model ran. American format: −110 ≈ 52% implied chance, +120 ≈ 45%

Over price

Latest price on the Over. American format: −110 ≈ 52% implied chance, +120 ≈ 45%

Under price

Latest price on the Under. American format: −110 ≈ 52% implied chance, +120 ≈ 45%

Implied over %

The Over's chance as the latest over and under prices imply it, with the source's margin removed

Opening line

First line seen today for this player and stat; "–" = no snapshot yet

Move since open

Latest line minus the opening line; + = the line went up

Move since prediction

Latest line minus the line at prediction; + = the line went up after the model ran

Line as of

When the latest line was fetched, in your local time

Source

Where the published line comes from

Lean at prediction

Over or Under: the side of the line at prediction the Prediction sat on. Lean hit uses the closing line

Closing line

Last published line before tip-off; Result and Lean hit are judged on it. "–" = before the game, or no line before tip-off

Model

Model tag

Id of the model that made this prediction: stat, position group, build date-time and two short hashes

Model record

This model tag's lean hit rate and within-10% rate over the kept days, with counts; "–" = fewer than 5 scored

Model (legacy)

Predict spread

Spread (std dev) of repeated predictions from the same model with dropout on, in stat units; 0 = all agreed

Price score L5

100 × (L5 over-rate × over decimal price − over's implied chance); over price whatever the lean. Not an expected value

Within-10% season

Share of his predicted games in the data window within 10% of what he actually did (sportsai's count), to his previous game

Within-10% last 3

Of his last 3 predicted games, the share within 10% of what he actually did (sportsai's count); always ÷ 3

Within-10% last 5

Of his last 5 predicted games, the share within 10% of what he actually did (sportsai's count); always ÷ 5

Within-10% last 9

Of his last 9 predicted games, the share within 10% of what he actually did (sportsai's count); always ÷ 9

Within-10% count

Count of his predicted games in the data window within 10% of what he actually did (sportsai's count), to his previous game

Post-game

Result

Over (more than the closing line), Under (fewer), Push (equal), Void (did not play, postponed or no line)

Lean hit

yes when the actual fell on the model's side of the closing line; "—" = push, void or no lean

Within 10%

yes when the model was within 10% of what he actually did

In the CSV only

Player ID

NBA's numeric id for the player

Player name

Player name as the NBA box score spells it

Team

The player's team, 3-letter code

Opponent

The opposing team, 3-letter code

Game ID

NBA game id, without the leading 00

Home team

Home team of the game, 3-letter code

Away team

Away team of the game, 3-letter code

Tip-off

Scheduled tip-off time

Game status

State of the game: scheduled, final or postponed

Unconfirmed

1 when the player's spot or the referee crew was not confirmed when the row was predicted; Prediction then shows brown

Floored

1 when the model output 0: the prediction is hidden and the row gets no lean, hit or within-10% score

L5 over count

How many of the player's last 5 games went over the line at prediction

L5 games

Games counted for Over, last 5 (fewer if he has played fewer)

L10 over count

How many of the player's last 10 games went over the line at prediction

L10 games

Games counted for Over, last 10 (fewer if he has played fewer)

Season over count

How many of the player's earlier games in the model's data window went over the line at prediction

Season games

Games counted for Over, season: his earlier games in the model's data window (about the last month)

Lean record hits

Of his earlier predictions this season, how many leans hit

Lean record games

His earlier predictions this season whose lean hit or missed; pushes, voids and 0 predictions are not counted

Prediction accuracy hits

Of his earlier predictions this season, how many were within 10% of what he actually did

Prediction accuracy games

His earlier predictions this season in games he played; did-not-play rows and 0 predictions are not counted

Team out players

Teammates ruled out for this game as "Name (POS); Name (POS)", POS = G, F, C or a pair like G-F; empty = none or not sent

Opponent out players

Opponent players ruled out for this game as "Name (POS); Name (POS)"; empty = none or not sent

Diff

Prediction minus the line shown (the closing line once the game is scored), in stat units

Filters

Team

Only players on this team

Game

Only players in this game

Slot

Only this lineup slot: C, F or G = starter at that position, Bench = bench or not named. Shows the Start slot column while set

Lean

Only rows whose Prediction is above (Over) or below (Under) the latest line. Not a recommendation. Shows the Lean column while set

Has line

Only players with a published line; untick to list players without one too

Min |Diff %|

Only rows whose Prediction is at least this many % away from the line, above or below. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction while set

Min avg

Only players whose season average of this stat is at least this. Shows the Season avg column while set

Max |Diff %|

Only rows whose Prediction is at most this many % away from the line, above or below; blank = no limit. Shows Diff %

Max avg

Only players whose season average of this stat is at most this; blank = no limit. Shows the Season avg column while set

P>10

Only rows with the Prediction more than 10% above the latest line. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction when ticked

P>20

Only rows with the Prediction more than 20% above the latest line. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction when ticked

P>30

Only rows with the Prediction more than 30% above the latest line. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction when ticked

P<10

Only rows with the Prediction more than 10% below the latest line. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction when ticked

P<20

Only rows with the Prediction more than 20% below the latest line. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction when ticked

P<30

Only rows with the Prediction more than 30% below the latest line. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction when ticked

Tight

Only rows whose Prediction is within 6% of the latest line, above or below. Shows Diff %, Line and Prediction while ticked

Confirmed only

Model records count only rows whose player and referees were confirmed; the rows shown do not change. Shows Model record

Group by game

Lists the rows under one header per game, in tip-off order

Preset

Fills the conditions with a built-in or saved preset; changing any value makes it Custom. Thresholds were found on PTS. A preset is a filter, not a recommendation

Line basis

The line the conditions and the summary use: the displayed line (closing once scored) or the line when the prediction was made

Match

All = a row must meet every condition; Any = one is enough. A group counts as one condition

Group match

All = every condition of this group must hold; Any = one of them is enough. The group is one condition of the Match above

Field

What the condition tests: a column, or a value read on the line basis (Prediction − line, Diff %, Over L10 vs selected line…)

Operator

How the field is compared: < ≤ = ≠ ≥ >, is / is not, or is missing / is present. A missing value never counts as 0

Compare with

value = a number you type; field = another field of the same kind on the same row (stat units, %, over-rates…)

Value

The number or text the field is compared with; an over-rate is 0 to 1 (0.5 = 50%). A range is two conditions, e.g. ≥ 10 and < 15

Second field

The field compared with on the same row; only fields of the same kind are listed

Preset name

The name Save preset keeps the conditions under, in this browser only; the same name replaces the old one

Sort

Accuracy (highest first; ties by graded rows, then ID) or the preset ID

Min graded

Hides presets with fewer graded rows (hits + misses) than this

Presets

Built-in Advanced presets: M = Prediction, L = the basis line, A = season average, R = last 3 average, P = previous game, H = stored season over-rate. The thresholds were found on PTS; REB and AST reuse them without a record.

01 · Over after previous game below line

02 · Under after previous game above line

03 · Under; season average 10–<15

04 · Under; line 10–<15

05 · Under; historical over rate ≥50%

06 · Under; season average <15

07 · Under; line <10

08 · Under; season average above line

09 · Over; historical over rate <50%

10 · Under; last-3 average above line

11 · Under; season average ≥20

12 · Under; prediction margin ≥2

13 · Season average opposes prediction

14 · Under; season average <10

15 · Under; prediction margin ≥3

16 · Under; season average <20

17 · Under; last-3 average above season average

18 · Under; prediction margin ≥5

19 · Last-3 average opposes prediction

20 · Under; prediction margin ≥1

21 · Under; last-3 average below line

22 · Under; season average below line

23 · Under; line ≥20

24 · Under; last-3 average below season average

25 · Under; both averages above line

26 · Under; both averages below line

27 · Both averages oppose prediction

28 · Over; season average below line

29 · Prediction and last-3 average agree

30 · Prediction and season average agree

31 · Under; historical over rate <50%

32 · Over; line <10

33 · Over; season average <10

34 · Over; season average 10–<20

35 · Prediction and both averages agree

36 · Under after previous game below line

37 · Over; last-3 average below line

38 · Over; both averages below line

39 · Over; last-3 average above line

40 · Over; season average above line

41 · Over; both averages above line

42 · Prediction and previous game agree

43 · Over; line ≥10

44 · Prediction, both averages, and previous game agree

45 · Over; historical over rate ≥50%

46 · Under; line 15–<20

47 · Over after previous game above line

48 · Over; prediction margin ≥3

49 · Under; season average 15–<20

50 · Over; season average ≥20

51 · Prediction opposes previous game